Posts tagged Thornburg Mortgage

Monday September 29, 2008: BAILOUT REJECTED! TMA reverse-splits. Citibank (C) buys Wachovia (WB).

Holy Moly, who saw that one coming?!  The House of Representatives voted down the bailout 228 to 205, and it’s being blamed on a “too-partisan” speech made by the Democratic speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.  Whether her speech was partisan or not, someone’s head had to roll. 

 

Hindsight is 20/20, and looking back to last night, there was a clear signal the bill wasn’t going to pass: after an initial positive response, the Asian markets began to slide into red.  Real money movers always know things ahead of time, and the Asian markets’ slip was a sure signal that our bill was not going to pass. I should have seen it, and maybe subconsciously I did, but it seemed too unbelievable that the bailout would not pass given its enormity and all the long days and weekends Congress had put into it.  But as we’ve seen with IndyMac, Fannie and Freddie, and Washington Mutual, nothing is too big to fail. 

 

Lawmakers are headed back to the drawing board to draft up a new version of the plan, but won’t meet again until Wednesday because tomorrow is Rosh Hashanah.

 

I’m more of an observer now than an active player.  I’m in too deep to do anything except wait, so all I can really focus on is the day to day with the stocks I own and the stocks that those stocks are absorbing.  Citigroup (C) bought Wachovia (WB) today for $2.2 billion, or $1 per share. 

 

Two funny computer errors happened today: Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) put through a 10:1 reverse stock split this morning, but not before they multiplied the share price by 10.  So during today’s premarket, it looked like I had 3K extra in my account!  But the quirk was soon fixed and so was the overinflated share price.  By close, TMA was down to $1.15, which would have been 11.5 cents on Friday before the reverse split.  To buy back the preferred shares, Thornburg needs to raise more capital.  You’re welcome, TMA.   

 

Another blip came to Wachovia’s share price today.  At one point, it listed on Google finance at $500!  Message boarders were going nuts, and that error put the financial sector up 7% and made it look like the only sector in the green.  But that error was also soon fixed, and everyone who owns WB fell back into reality. 

 

One last computer oddity happened at the New York Stock Exchange today: because of a glitch, the morning bell never rang.  Mary Caraccioli said she’s never seen that happen.

 

People are still sweating a Moody’s downgrade to Ambac (ABK).  I really hope not.  Of all problems that could happen, that one tops my concern.  Just about a month ago, I was up over 100% on ABK and now I’m in the red.  If a Moody’s downgrade comes, it’ll destroy Ambac, especially after today.     

 

The Dow, which opened down over 100 points in seeming anticipation, dropped 777 points today- the greatest one-day decline in its history and even greater than the drop after September 11, 2001- to close the say at $10,365.  However to see the glass 1/10 full, this was the 17th worst daily drop percentage-wise, so not quite the worst.  Crude oil fell $10.52 to close at $96.36.   

 

The Sydney Morning Herald reported tonight that “online broking portal Etrade ground to a virtual halt this morning [Tuesday September 30] as it struggled to cope with massive trading volumes.”  Is this a hint of more blood to come?  Damn sure it is!

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Friday September 26, 2008: In a whisper, WaMu became the biggest bank failure in history

WaMu closed the day at 16 cents.  Its website says “WaMu Customers, Welcome to JP Morgan Chase”.  The fail of Washington Mutual is the largest in history, yet it wasn’t nearly as front-page news as other failures.  Something’s strange.  But like I said, I haven’t a clue what it all means.

 

A CNNMoney.com article today put the size of WaMu’s failure into terms more easily understood for all us common folk:

 

“To put the size of WaMu in context, its assets are equal to about two-thirds of the combined book value assets of all 747 failed thrifts that were sold off by the Resolution Trust Corp. – the former government body that handled the S&L crisis from 1989 through 1995.”

 

My Dad thinks I should get out now.  I can’t.  Every bank failure and deal has been made over a weekend, so I’m hoping the bailout plan will come this weekend.  However, I do really doubt it will do much to my share prices!

 

In other news, TMA extended its tender offer- again.  Imagine that!

 

At least it’s the weekend.  What a week!  I think everyone needs a break.  Maybe if everyone gets some rest over the weekend some sanity will return to the market on Monday.  The Dow closed up 121 to $11,143.  Crude lost $1.12 to close at $106.89.

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Thursday September 25, 2008: WaMu fails, IDMC makes a 300% gain. Why?

This week has totally sucked.  Congress is dragging its feet with the bailout plan and Washington Mutual (WM) was seized tonight by the FDIC and sold to JP Morgan.  What does that mean for WM shareholders?  I haven’t a clue.  Message boarders think it means terrible things.  This afternoon, WaMu closed the trading day at $1.69, then fell in afterhours trading to 45 cents.  What I do know is that, right now, it looks like I made a big mistake on investing in this one. 

 

Thornburg Mortgage has been extending and extending and extending an offer to its preferred shareholders to tender their preferred stock and receive a few shares worth of common stock for each of those shares.  Tomorrow is the latest extension’s deadline.  If the tender offering goes through, the loss I incurred with WaMu will be erased.  If it gets extended again, or does not go through, I will seriously consider pulling out of this whole experiment altogether, paying off my car, and taking a nice trip somewhere.

 

The fact is, there aren’t enough hours in the day to keep a finger on the economy’s pulse, be in graduate school, and hold down a full-time non-desk job.  My head is spinning from the amount of information I’ve missed this week.  I have no idea why Freddie Mac (FRE) has been making consistent daily gains of 50%.  I have no idea why the OTC IndyMac (IDMC) made a 300% gain today.  What are the changes Congress made to the bailout plan?  No idea.  Is cosine or negative cosine the antiderivative of sine?  Not sure.  The only thing I do know is, that when push comes to shove, I’d rather be in a classroom of 9th graders for 80 minutes than in a room with slimy bankers for 5 minutes.  So all’s not lost.

 

The Dow gained 196 to close the day at $11,022.  Oil made gains today to close at $108.02 per barrel. 

 

Go TMA!       

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Tuesday August 26, 2008: Hurricane Gustav, Interest rates will increase

Happy Birthday, Mom! 

 

Back to work in the UK.  Yesterday was a bank holiday over there for some reason. 

 

The dollar has gained and lost value against other world currencies since trends like these began being recorded in the 1970s, and usually, as the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, the tide takes about a half decade to come in and another half decade to go back out again.  The most recent downtrend triggered in 2002 is now six years strong, and with the bounce the dollar has seen in the past few weeks, some analysts are predicting that the dollar is in fact beginning an uptrend.  It may all be due less to a better domestic economy and more to a weakening economy oversees, but oil’s recent falls are real, and in the last month and a half the dollar has gained a significant 8% on the euro and 5% on the Japanese yen.  The dollar closed the day up 0.68% against the euro today, decreasing the cost of one to $1.4648.  News is that the Fed’s next interest rate adjustment will be an increase, but no timetable has yet been set.  Consumer confidence in July was said to be up more than expected. 

 

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) closed yesterday at $0.40, then jumped over 50% in afterhours last night.  A friend of mine says he saw 80 cents in premarket trading this morning, but I was sleeping when it happened.  The stock opened today up 25%, climbed to 50% above opening, then slowly slid to close up 22%.  Google message boarders are predicting TMA to reach anywhere between $1.20 to $5 by week’s end.  I’m not holding my breath on $5 by Friday, but it’s starting to look like $1 may be possible.  A year ago, TMA was trading at $14/share, which was down from $27 just one month before.  One thousand shares of this stock could really pay off if TMA reaches even a quarter of its 52-week high.

 

Freddie had another up day: 20%.  The morning made it look like a great day was about to unfold for just about all the financials, but by the afternoon things had changed.  Other than TMA and FRE, most were down except for a few that just squeaked into the green.  One financial, Michigan Heritage Bancorp (MHBC) did something I’ve only ever seen OTCs do: it closed up 100%.  But the trading volume on MHBC is so low I’m not touching it. 

 

The Dow had a sideways day that ended up 26 points to $11,412, and on anticipation of Hurricane Gustav disrupting production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico region, oil climbed $1.16 to $116.27 a barrel.  However, that was down from an earlier increase of over $2, so it may be that Gustav is changing course.

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Friday August 23, 2008: Oil lost all its gains from Yesterday, and then some

It seems like a dream come true, but raisin bran that is exactly one-half raisins is kind of disgusting.  Is wheat really that expensive?  Maybe there was a sale on grapes.

 

After an extremely red week, it was certainly a breath of fresh air waking up this morning to large percentage gains in before hours trading.  When the market opened, it was a wash of green- even Freddie Mac.  Whew!  The dollar gained and oil fell overnight as worries eased about Russia holding our oil hostage. 

 

Warren Buffet came out today saying that there’s no way the government won’t have to intervene in the Freddie and Fannie situation but that the two giants are too big to fail (Freddie Mac owns half of the bad mortgages out there), that it will be until at least 2009 before the economy really starts to turn north, and that he’s supporting Barack Obama for president.  In the August issue of Smart Money magazine, Buffet discloses that he believes the dollar will weaken over time and is investing his money oversees.  When Warren Buffet talks, people listen.  I just hope he’s not right about the dollar. 

 

Analysts seem to think that a hostile takeover of Lehman brothers (LEH) is imminent, so its shares rose $2, or about 14%, overnight.  An oversees bank, Korea Development Bank, also helped bump LEH by announcing their consideration of an investment in the beaten up investment bank.  Lehman Brothers has a 52-week high of $67 and a current trade of $15. 

 

By 10:30AM, the main points of Ben Bernanke’s speech at the annual Fed meeting hit Bloomberg.  Bernanke threatened that lawmakers would step in if the rise consumer prices didn’t begin to slow and stated that he believes inflation will begin to ease by 2009.  He also thinks that the financials need stricter oversight.  Analysts are betting that interest rates will increase by year’s end.  Within an hour of Ben’s speech, with the Dow still up almost 200 points, one-third of my financials blinked into the red.  By lunchtime, most were.  I know that I still have a lot to learn about how all this stuff works and what it all means, but it seems to me that if the head of the Federal Reserve has people running for cover, something isn’t right.

 

Oil lost $6.59 to close the week at $114.59.  The Dow closed the week at $11,628, up 198 points from yesterday. 

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