Posts tagged SCA
October 26, 2008
· Filed under business, economy, investing, money, politics, stock market · Tagged accounting, C, centerline, CHC, Citigroup, CN8, gasoline, Iran, mark-to-market, Money Matters Today, new home sales, Nikkei, oil, SCA, SEC, Syncora
The Nikkei 225 hit a 26-year low today- last night for us. Gasoline prices in the US fell the fastest in the past two weeks that they have ever fallen, and now the national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline is just about where it was a year ago.
The SEC is still deciding whether it will suspend the mark-to-market rules, letting banks value their bad assets at whatever they want. Critics say that this will further warp perspective, but people in favor of getting rid of the rule say it will help banks’ balance sheets. This coming Wednesday, the SEC is set to hold a discussion on the implications of mark-to-market accounting and its possible recent effect on the market.
New home sales data came out today and was better than expected. Although 33% lower than they were a year ago, sales of new homes increased 2.7% from August to September. So there is some sign of movement.
The Dow crept up today until 2PM when someone yelled, “sike!” and everything came crashing down to close 203 points below open to $8,175. Just 175 more points until we’re in the seven thousands and half of where we were just about exactly a year ago. Crude took a big dip in early morning trading, but then rallied a little after the new home sale data to close down just 93 cents to $63.22 per barrel.
My stocks are all in the can. Citigroup (C) is trading under $12 a share, and two- Syncora (SCA) and Centerline Holdings (CHC) are under $1. If only they stay on the New York Stock Exchange, I’ll be happy.
A couple interesting things were said on Money Matters Today tonight: Iran needs its oil, which it’s only real export, to be sold at $95 a barrel in order to fund its social programs. I’m no expert on Iranian social programs, but oil trading in the $60 range has got to be hitting Iran hard if they need it trading 60% higher.
Another interesting thing said on the show tonight was that for every penny drop in the price of a gallon of gasoline, Americans add over $1 billion to their pockets annually.
October 13, 2008
· Filed under business, economy, investing, money, politics, stock market · Tagged ABK, ambac, dow closed, Henry Paulson, interbank lending, MBI, MBIA, Mitsubishi, Moody's, Morgan Stanley, MS, Radian Group, RDN, SCA, stimulus package, stocks, Syncora, wall street
Forget Prozac, the market needs lithium. After last week’s worst week, today marked the best day in Wall Street’s history and the biggest one-day percentage gain since 1933. Stocks rallied all across the board. The Dow closed up 936 points, or over 11%, to $9,387, and the Nasdaq and S&P also gained over 11% each. Morgan Stanley (MS) traded like an OTC today, gaining 86% from its close of $9.68 on Friday after Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group invested in it $9 billion. Will it stick? Maybe. Countries all across the globe are now jointly focused on fixing their banks to stave off a worldwide recession, so if this doesn’t work, what will?
By the way, sometime over the weekend the plan changed from “buying toxic mortgage-backed assets” to “let’s follow Great Brittan because they seem to know how to deal with this crisis, so let’s pump money into a few good banks like they’re doing over there across the pond”. So that’s what we’re doing. And the figure is now $250 billion instead of $700 or $850 or whatever it ended up being once al the rum and wooden arrow makers across the nation were settled up.
The credit markets were closed today because of the holiday, but they open back up tomorrow. Analysts are now looking to see if the interbank lending rates, or the rates banks charge each other to borrow each other’s money (think what needed to happen but didn’t when people ran IndyMac) will come down so that banks will again lend to each other. Until banks again start covering each other, no one who missed one electric bill will be able to get a loan.
The only stocks I’m ahead in right now are Radian Group (RDN), MBIA (MBI), and Syncora (SCA); the rest are one big hemorrhage. Moody’s still hasn’t lifted their threat of downgrade of Ambac (ABK). But to stay positive after such a positive day, at least I’ll be able to average down. And average down I definitely will!
Word that a second stimulus package may be on its way may have also helped boost the markets today. Crude oil followed the rest of the market today, closing up $4.14 to $81.84.
The #1 movie in America is Beverly Hills Chihuahua.
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September 8, 2008
· Filed under money, politics, stock market · Tagged Alan Fishman, Andrew McCain, dollar, dollar value, dow closed, financials, Fitch Ratings, freddie mac, Friedman Billings Ramsey, Hurricane Ike, investing, John McCain's son, Kerry Killinger, money, oil closed, Radian Group, RDN, SCA, September 8 2008, Silver State Bancorp, SSBX, Steve Stelmach, stocks, Syncora, trading, Washington Mutual, WM
“Never count your chickens before they’ve hatched” goes the saying, but I didn’t follow this advice. This morning during the premarket, I busted out my calculator to crunch just how much I was set to make based on the premarket numbers, and it was a lot. So you can imagine my surprise when I signed back into Etrade at 11AM to see most of my stocks in the red and Freddie trading at $1 (which actually was better than I expected). Indeed, the financials all opened up big- real big- and I’m sure today’s blip will be seen for years to come. But then things happened. I’m still not sure exactly what, but maybe it was a composite of a bunch of things:
Washington Mutual (WM) gave their CEO Kerry Killinger the boot, instated veteran Alan Fishman, and was told by the Office of Thrift Supervision to provide “an updated, multi-year business plan and forecast for its earnings, asset quality, capital and business segment performance” (SmartMoney.com). Sure sounds like micromanagement to me. WM closed the day down 5.62% after being down 20% during some of the session.
Syncora’s (SCA) rating was withdrawn by Fitch Ratings, who had just in August changed SCA’s rating from “evolving” to “positive”. Who are these Fitch Ratings people anyway, and why does their word mean so much? SCA closed the day down 4% after being down by double digit percentages various times during today’s session.
Radian Group (RDN) opened the day at $5.50, which was up from Friday’s close of $4.79, steadily fell throughout the day like its siblings, then fell off in the last few minutes of trading to close the day down 17%. Google message boarders think someone knows something, although no news has yet hit.
Silver State Bancorp (SSBX), driven into the ground by John McCain’s son Andrew McCain, failed on Friday, making US bank casualty number eleven. I held just 125 shares of them, worth just over $100, so the hit wasn’t so hard. But that with Freddie had me reeling. I contemplated selling WM and SCA, or buying more WM, or buying Deerfield Capital (DFR), or not buying them, or waiting it out, or putting a 60-day limit order in, but in the end I did nothing. I sold SSBX at market for a gain less than the commission and held on to FRE. I decided that once the smoke clears, which stock is which and where each is going will become much clearer. But I sure do wish those pre- and early-market numbers held! And most of all, I hope today isn’t a sign that the US banking industry is going the way of Wal-Mart (who coincidentally closed the day up 2%), and headed to put all the little guys out of business. One analyst, Steve Stelmach of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. said that “mortgage insurance could become an obsolete form of credit enhancement” in the long-term because of the bailout. He was loosely referring to the drop in RDN’s share price and how the company, and ones like it, could be phased out.
The Dow ironically traced a smiley face, opening way up, dipping a bit, then closing the day up 289 to $11,510. Because of Hurricane Ike barreling towards the Gulf of Mexico, oil closed the day up as well, but just by 11 cents to $106.34. The dollar is at its highest value in nearly a year! It would now take just $1.41 to get one euro. Including the hit from SSBX, I closed the day down $323, $211 of which was from FRE.
You win some, you lose some; I just wish I had won today. The market rallied and I was left in its dust. With any luck, much of today’s activity in the financial sector was just profit-taking and the days to come will reveal the real reaction to this past weekend’s news. Next time I won’t count my chickens before they’ve hatched and started laying eggs of their own!
September 4, 2008
· Filed under money, politics, stock market · Tagged ABK, bear market, Bill Gross, dollar, dow, euro, market september 4, McCain, MTG, National City, Palin, PIMCO, PMI, RDN, SCA, speech, stock market september 4
“Nobody knows why the Dow dropped 345 points today” was the headline on Bloggingstocks.com. The bottom dropped out of the Dow today- 344 points to close at $11,188!- and speculation is flying about why. All three indices- the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500- fell back into bear markets.
A lot of data was slotted to come out this week, and today’s data showed that initial unemployment claims, and therefore people recently laid off, have risen to a near 5 year high. But retail store sales are up and oil dropped $1.46 to $107.89, a 5-month low. Oil has lost $40 in two months. So why did the market plunge today?
Conspiracy theorists think the rich of the world sold off for a reason and are keeping tight-lipped about why. Maybe it was a hedge fund sell off. A story came out yesterday predicting the fall of many hedge funds because commodities are falling. Maybe it’s just a manifestation of the extreme volatility the market has seen this summer. Bill Gross, the head of Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO), recognized and announced August’s light trading volumes, and warned of an imminent “financial tsunami”. Maybe this scared people? What the heck is a financial tsunami? Was today’s selloff a reflection of a weakening global economy? The dollar is up to its highest against the euro since the year began, and it now takes just $1.43 to get one euro. The euro was created, in part, as a similar exchange to the US dollar, but $1.43 is a great improvement from the $1.5903 it would have taken to get one euro on July 15. And isn’t it true that if the US economy improves it will lead the world back out of the hole?
Maybe Sarah Palin’s dirty nomination speech made everyone run. “When [Obama] you’re done parting the waters and healing the world…”? Was she serious? Maybe when she’s done slinging mud she’ll focus on what she’ll do about the desperate economy and enormous national debt.
It’s unclear what happened today, but what I know for myself is that I lost $300 today when the Dow lost 345, and I gained $1,000 yesterday when the Dow gained just 15. Five of my financial stocks- PMI, RDN, ABK, SCA, and MTG- had double digit gains yesterday, so I expected a selloff today; but I expected it to be a lot worse than it was after [fighting my internet connection and finally] seeing that the market took such a hit today. National City’s (NCC) rating was cut today by S&P but the stock price fell less than 6%! First Horizon’s (FHN) rating was also cut, and its stock price fell just over 6%. If I can make large gains when the market makes small ones, and have medium losses when the market has big ones, then I’ll be sure my experiment is working.
Data on the total unemployment rate comes out tomorrow, and it is believed to be at 5.7%. Will this data spike the market again? A lot of questions are unanswered.
It’s easy to read between the lines that I’m voting for Barack Obama, but to stay aware of both sides, I have been watching speeches from both sides and John McCain’s speech scared me tonight. By the end of his speech, it seemed that if he had a gun he would have started popping caps in the air. I’m not sure I’d feel safe with him in the same room as the red phone and bomb button.
In the hopes that Mary Caraccioli had some insight into today’s market, I stayed up past McCain’s speech and then past Comcast Channel 3’s insightful commentary on McCain’s speech to catch Money Matters Today. It’s usually on at 11PM (and rerun the next day at 11AM) but to my dismay, the show was completely run over by the McCain commentators and was not pushed up to a later time. The sports show Out of Bounds came on instead. Typical. I guess tomorrow will be a complete surprise.
August 15, 2008
· Filed under money, stock market · Tagged ABK, ambac, bonds, dow closed at, MBI, money, oil closed at, PMI, RDN, SCA, speculation, stocks, trading
Both MBIA and ABK were upgraded afterhours last night, so their share prices soared in afterhours trading, leaving no possibility of getting more ABK on the cheap! I put in a limit order to buy 100 more shares, but it didn’t take, so I bumped my order down to 75 shares at a higher price and the order took. Prices always seem to fall after a hot stock’s early morning surge, but I got punchy and bought in. Luckily by the end of the day, my buy-in price started looking pretty cheap. ABK broke the $6 mark, then fell to close the day at $5.63- up 23% on the day.
Shares of Silver State Bancorp (SSBX) fell 25% today on news that their second quarter loss was miscalculated and was actually larger than reported. Ouch. Google message boarders think the bank will go bust. Its 52-week high is $19 and SSBX is currently trading at just 62 cents. My very scientific calculation of dividing the current share price by the 52-week high yields the tiny fraction 0.0326, which tells me, in a very scientific way, that this thing is at least a decent bet and at most a real money-maker. I’ll keep my $77 worth of shares until the real bottom is reached, then maybe average down.
When starting this experiment, I set two goals for myself: to have a $1000 day, which happened yesterday, and to hit $10,000 by October. Today I hit the second goal two months early, thanks mostly to the bond insurers PMI, ABK, MBI, RDN, and SCA. So what now? Let it ride! I honestly wasn’t sure $10,000 would ever happen. But it did. So what’s the next goal? I like base 10.
The Dow moved sideways today to close the day up 44 points to $11,659. Oil closed down $1.24 today to $113.77 on news that world demand is down. Wasn’t demand in developing countries reportedly way up a month ago? Wasn’t that the reason oil was at $140 a barrel? Gee, things sure can change in a month! Please, it’s all speculation.
Whoo hoo, Friday! I’m headed out of Massachusetts for the first time in a while.
August 11, 2008
· Filed under money, stock market · Tagged banks, CHC, dollar, dow closed, economy, FRE, freddie mac, investing, legg mason, michael phelps, money, naked short, oil closed, phelps, Radian, RDN, SCA, SSBX, stock market, stocks, Syncora, trading
The Financial Times called this week “crucial” for determining if the six-year downward trend of the dollar will finally end. One Euro now costs $1.4904, down almost 10 cents from about a month ago. If it does break free, economists are expecting a quick economic rebound. Fingers crossed.
Etrade pushed my funds through this morning so I was clear to buy. I picked up more shares of MBI and CHC, and then bought into ACA Capital Holdings (ACAH) before reading the news that hit Friday about the company writing no new business. So about 15 minutes later I sold ACAH at a loss. I also sold off TGIC today at a loss and for the same reason. No new business can never be a good thing, and I should have read up first before buying. Haven’t I learned this lesson already? Yes I have; the reason I sold TGIC the first time was due to a “no new business” declaration. I should have read up on ACAH before jumping in. I’ll never learn!
With the rest of my available funds, I was only able to buy 40 shares of Silver State Bancorp (SSBX), which I should have bought into first, and had written a note to myself to buy into first, but for whatever reason didn’t. It has a relatively low trading volume, but the tiny fraction created by dividing its 52-week high into where it’s currently trading was just too good to pass up. I’ll pick up more SSBX later in the week.
By 1PM I set up a plan for what to buy into next. UCBH Holdings (UCBH), MF Global (MF), AMCORE Financial (AMFI), and Corus Bankshares (CORS) all create tiny fractions when dividing the current price by the 52-week high, and UCBH and MF both reported some sort of second quarter gains. CORS and AMFI had unusual upward movement today, which could be a red flag, and also have much lower trading volumes than UCBH and MF. Because of all this, I decided my next two moves would be into UCHB and MF, as soon as Etrade clears the funds created from selling off TGIC and ACAH.
I’d like to take a second to scream how dope Michael Phelps is. MICHAEL PHELPS, YOU ROCK!! He doesn’t represent every boy whose dad was an ass; he represents what every person can be. Why Channel 7 shows soap operas over the Olympics I’ll never understand. Ok, back to stocks.
Radian Group (RDN) reported a loss of $392.50 million ($4.91 per share) this morning as opposed to a profit of $21.1 million ($0.26 per share) this time last year, causing its share value to drop in the morning, but the news was quickly forgotten RDN closed up 8% on the day. Reporting a profit these days is the anomaly, and even when a financial posts a profit, such as ABK last week, a stock can still fall. There seems to be little rhyme or reason to financial stock prices in this environment, except that the announcement of “no new business” slaughters a stock price. All other news is fair game.
The Dow was completely driven by oil today: when oil fell in the morning, the Dow made gains, and when oil had a change of heart around 2PM, so did the Dow. http://www.advfn.com/p.php is a great site to watch the Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500, and their connection to crude oil prices. The Dow closed the day up 48 points to $11,782. Oil closed the day down 75 cents to
$114.45, the lowest it’s been since May 1, and fell below the benchmark $113 a barrel at one point during today’s trading session.
After the closing bell, Syncora Holdings (SCA) reported a second quarter loss of $492.9 million ($7.67 per share). It should move up or down (who knows?) in the morning. Naked short sellers return tomorrow, and I’m starting to have serious doubts about the fate of Freddie Mac (FRE). By the end of the week if the news that big wig Legg Mason bought millions more shares doesn’t send FRE into the green, I may need to cut it loose. Manny needs mental peace, I need mental peace. Sinkers don’t bring the peace, just the pain!
August 8, 2008
· Filed under money, stock market · Tagged ABK, banks, CHC, China, dollar, dow closed at, Etrade, Fannie, money, oil bubble, oil closed at, SCA, stock market, stocks, trading
Etrade sucks. When I transferred finds in this morning, a little window popped up saying the funds would be ready for immediate investment. When they didn’t show in my account, I called and the rep told me I’d have to wait until the 14th. By 3:30PM I wasn’t happy with that answer, so I called back and the new rep told me they’d fix the problem within 30 minutes. But they didn’t. Total bullshit. You really do get what you pay for, but in Etrade’s case, I think $10 a trade and free customer service is way overpriced.
Telegram U.K. declared a burst of the oil bubble. Well no shit. All the Escalade drivers who have been [falsely] cursing China’s oil demand for driving up the cost of their premium unleaded must be thanking God for answering their prayers. Ah, I’m just bitter today for being cheated by Etrade. As a result of the burst in oil, transportation was the big winner today.
But all I could do today was watch. Mbia (MBI) reported a surprise profit of $1.7 billion before the bell this morning, so its stock jumped big in early morning trading. Between last night and this morning, I whittled today’s buy plan down to three stocks: 50 more shares of MBI before it hit the stratosphere, 100 more of CHC, and 50 more of ABK, but it was a no go on any of it. Damn you Etrade! Liars!
JP Morgan analysts, as if they’re any sort of authority these days, downgraded Ambac (ABK), so its stock fell even after the great profit it reported on Wednesday. People on the Google message boards think it was a classic case of stock manipulation, and I may agree. ABK ended the day down 8%, MBI ended the day up 3%, and CHC ended the day up 48%.
Fannie Mae (FNM) reported a huge second quarter loss of $2.3 billion ($2.54 per share) and a slash of its dividend before the bell this morning, so it was no surprise its stock fell. But it was a bit surprising that Freddie Mac (FRE) saw green today. I know I still have a lot to learn about the stock market, but it struck me as odd that Fannie didn’t pull everything else into its vortex like Freddie seemed to do yesterday.
All in all, I gained today, but not enough to erase yesterday’s huge loss. The Dow closed up 303 points to $11,734, and oil closed down $4.82 to $115.20 per barrel. The dollar made its greatest one-day gain in over five years, and gold hit a 3-month low. The Beijing opening ceremonies are tonight, so the world’s eye will be in China.
August 5, 2008
· Filed under stock market · Tagged federal reserve, IDMC, indymac, money, naked short, oil closed, SCA, shana donohue, stock market, stocks, Syncora, TGIC, trading
Americans are completely brilliant. We’ll be back on top soon, I’m sure of it. For the last few days, maybe even longer, the energy sector has been taking a real beating, making it seem as if the naked shorts went to play over there. We shoo the downpushers from financials to guard them while at the very same time announcing that we’re going to drill at home. Let’s follow the money… Completely and totally brilliant.
Last Wednesday I sold my 200 shares of Triad Guaranty (TGIC) because it just wasn’t moving and thought I could use the funds better somewhere else. Then over the next two days, the stock jumped 150%: from 0.9 to 2.25. Just my luck! Well earnings came out after the bell last night and scared everyone away, shooting the stock down 30% this morning, allowing me to get back in at $1.72. By 10AM, it hit green, opening a chance for all the people who woke up late to get out with their shirts still on, which they did, and by 10:30AM TGIC was solidly back in red. I picked up more shares cheap when it bounced, then by 2PM it was trading lower than my cost average. I really can’t win. Whatever, I’ll wait!
People have been making a killing day trading the OTC IndyMac (IDMC). Its fluctuation is outrageous: from 0.04 to 0.05 to 0.04 to 0.05 to 0.06+. It’s a dream for people! I’m too chicken to do anything with all that, as I’m sure my getting in would signal the party to end, but it’s nice to read peoples’ stories on the Google message board of how they’re making a boat load. I’m still in at 0.14 and should really evaluate what I’m thinking will happen with it. By 2:30PM, the ghost in the jukebox was up 50% on the day.
Security Capital Assurance (SCA) is changing its name to Syncora, which froze its price at yesterday’s close and turned its ticker to a string of numbers in my watch list. But that’s OK with me since its price slid today, making it the only one [besides TGIC] in my portfolio of 14 financials to snub its nose at this great up day.
At 2:15PM, news broke that the Fed would be keeping the interest rate at 2%, which wasn’t much of a surprise, but Radian Group (RDN), MGIC Investment (MTG), and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) especially liked this news showing big green candles at 2:15PM in their charts.
The Dow closed up 331 points to $11,615. Oil closed down $1.66 to $119.75. Get em, shorts!
