Posts tagged oil closed

Wednesday September 10, 2008: More pain at Lehman Brothers

OPEC is made up of 11 countries, and in September 2007, the group agreed to produce 28.8 million barrels a day.  Because global demand had been so high (except for in the last few months, of course), OPEC needed to bump that production up by 500,000 barrels a day.

 

Now that global demand is down, OPEC is “cutting” its production by those extra 500,000 barrels a day and re-adhering to the September 2007 quota.  But despite this, and the impending hit on Texas by Hurricane Ike, crude oil lost 68 cents a barrel to end the day at $102.58.

 

My strength has really been tested this week.  Often in the sectors, one bad stock in one sector can cause investors to run hard to other sectors.  This week that rotten apple has no doubt been Lehman Brothers whose premarket numbers were up over 20% before 8AM, but then fell like a rotten redwood once 8AM, along with the news that the bank lost $3.9 billion in Q3, hit.  Over the course of the day, LEH did make up ground and go green, and when it did, other financials followed.  But by 3:30PM the optimism was over and LEH took a turn to close down 7% for the day, again, taking other financials with it.  Later in the day, the company made a claim that it will spin its commercial real estate, worth $30 billion, into a new company and will sell another $40 billion worth of residential mortgages to the United Kingdom bank Blackrock.  Regardless of all these claims, the last thirty minutes of trading were gut wrenchingly painful as I watched the modest gains of some of my riskier stocks slip away. 

 

I have no stake in Lehman Brothers other than the residual effect its bad numbers have on my stocks’ numbers; I just watch the stock out of interest, much like some (not me) are compelled to slow down to rubberneck a car wreck on the other side of the highway.  However, I do own Washington Mutual (WM) who is having some serious problems of its own and whose share price fell to a 17-year low today.  I read somewhere today that “there is a 90% chance it will default within five years.”  By “default” do they mean “go bust”?  And if so, who can predict even the next day, let alone the market five years out?  I’m hoping that it was artificial panic, but WM fell by a very real 30% today.  Someone on the Google message boards claimed to have purposefully driven by a local branch to make sure a run wasn’t happening.  It wasn’t.  People were still going in at a leisurely pace to make deposits.  That made me feel [only very, very slightly] better since there are no WaMus around here for me to drive by, and I had been wondering.  A friend of mine says that Washington Mutual’s new CEO Alan Fishman is “a genius and had a stellar record with Sovereign Bank”.  He doesn’t see WM failing.  I’m going to take his word for it because my friend is smart himself and what other option do I have?  Sell at a loss?  Cry in my hands?  I don’t think so!  Go big or go bust!  Oh please go big, not bust!

 

This week has been painful, but out of optimism, I have to say today was less painful than yesterday, and hopefully tomorrow will be positive, or at least even less painful than today.  And amidst it all, Radian Group (RDN) and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) made double digit percentage gains today, so there is still some light in the sector.  The bailout of Freddie and Fannie was a game changer, and arguably a very unfair one, but soon again it will be about balance sheets and not terror. 

 

The Dow moved sideways today and closed up 38 points to $11,268. 

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Monday September 8, 2008: 11th Bank Failure (thanks McCain), and a day of profit-grabbing??

“Never count your chickens before they’ve hatched” goes the saying, but I didn’t follow this advice.  This morning during the premarket, I busted out my calculator to crunch just how much I was set to make based on the premarket numbers, and it was a lot.  So you can imagine my surprise when I signed back into Etrade at 11AM to see most of my stocks in the red and Freddie trading at $1 (which actually was better than I expected).  Indeed, the financials all opened up big- real big- and I’m sure today’s blip will be seen for years to come.  But then things happened.  I’m still not sure exactly what, but maybe it was a composite of a bunch of things:

 

Washington Mutual (WM) gave their CEO Kerry Killinger the boot, instated veteran Alan Fishman, and was told by the Office of Thrift Supervision to provide “an updated, multi-year business plan and forecast for its earnings, asset quality, capital and business segment performance” (SmartMoney.com).  Sure sounds like micromanagement to me.  WM closed the day down 5.62% after being down 20% during some of the session. 

 

Syncora’s (SCA) rating was withdrawn by Fitch Ratings, who had just in August changed SCA’s rating from “evolving” to “positive”.  Who are these Fitch Ratings people anyway, and why does their word mean so much?  SCA closed the day down 4% after being down by double digit percentages various times during today’s session. 

 

Radian Group (RDN) opened the day at $5.50, which was up from Friday’s close of $4.79, steadily fell throughout the day like its siblings, then fell off in the last few minutes of trading to close the day down 17%.   Google message boarders think someone knows something, although no news has yet hit. 

 

Silver State Bancorp (SSBX), driven into the ground by John McCain’s son Andrew McCain, failed on Friday, making US bank casualty number eleven.  I held just 125 shares of them, worth just over $100, so the hit wasn’t so hard.  But that with Freddie had me reeling.  I contemplated selling WM and SCA, or buying more WM, or buying Deerfield Capital (DFR), or not buying them, or waiting it out, or putting a 60-day limit order in, but in the end I did nothing.  I sold SSBX at market for a gain less than the commission and held on to FRE.  I decided that once the smoke clears, which stock is which and where each is going will become much clearer.  But I sure do wish those pre- and early-market numbers held!  And most of all, I hope today isn’t a sign that the US banking industry is going the way of Wal-Mart (who coincidentally closed the day up 2%), and headed to put all the little guys out of business.  One analyst, Steve Stelmach of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. said that “mortgage insurance could become an obsolete form of credit enhancement” in the long-term because of the bailout.  He was loosely referring to the drop in RDN’s share price and how the company, and ones like it, could be phased out.      

 

The Dow ironically traced a smiley face, opening way up, dipping a bit, then closing the day up 289 to $11,510.  Because of Hurricane Ike barreling towards the Gulf of Mexico, oil closed the day up as well, but just by 11 cents to $106.34.  The dollar is at its highest value in nearly a year!  It would now take just $1.41 to get one euro.  Including the hit from SSBX, I closed the day down $323, $211 of which was from FRE. 

 

You win some, you lose some; I just wish I had won today.  The market rallied and I was left in its dust.  With any luck, much of today’s activity in the financial sector was just profit-taking and the days to come will reveal the real reaction to this past weekend’s news.  Next time I won’t count my chickens before they’ve hatched and started laying eggs of their own!

 

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Thursday August 14, 2008: PMI gets bought out and leads a financials rally

At the bewilderment of the New Yorker who took my call, I cancelled my free trial membership to the Financial Times today.  “Your free month isn’t over yet, are you sure you want to cancel?” she asked.  “Yes,” I answered, “I never get a chance to read it.”  The honest answer would have been that there aren’t enough pictures and the print is too small, but I didn’t want to get into all that.   I picked up the October issue of Writer’s Digest because it boasted a 28-person long list of agents who are actively seeking new work.  I emailed three of them last night.  Two of them already rejected me.  Fuck them. 

 

Better times did indeed come today.  QBE Insurance Group announced this morning that they plan to buy PMI Group’s (PMI) Asian and Australian businesses for $896 million, which caused my 250 shares of PMI to skyrocket in price from $2.79 to $4.00 in premarket trading, climb to 70% above open, and fall to close the day up 49% to at $4.17.  All at once, all the losses I incurred this week disappeared.  Nice. 

 

I had a change of heart about UCBH last night.  Its 52-week high is just $20, which doesn’t seem worth the $4 a share now.  The financials are so beaten down, there are much better bargains to be found.  Picking up more shares of Ambac Financial (ABK) for the same price, and which has a 52-week high of $74, may be a better bet, but its share price was up too high to buy in today.  PMI, SCA, RDN, and MBI all had double digit percentage gains, and just about all the financials closed in the green today.  Tomorrow, when everyone is done grabbing profits, will be a better time to buy.  I had a dream last night that I signed into my brokerage account, which wasn’t Etrade but another strange trading platform, saw that I had made $50,000 (I wish), and somehow lost the internet connection and web address to get back in and sell.  By the time I did get back in, after a tryst with my dead friend and being robbed by one of my student’s parents, all the profits were gone.  I woke up pretty distressed, so the surprise about PMI came on a good morning. 

 

I also hit a personal goal today: my portfolio took in $1000 in a day.  Making $1000 everyday would be pretty sweet, and I really never thought it would actually happen.  But it did.  Maybe my experiment is really working.  One of my friends said that he feels bad for the people losing money, but I don’t.  They don’t cry on my bad days.  I’m all about helping people, and in fact can’t imagine what I’d do if I wasn’t a teacher.  Well I’d be a locksmith, but they help people too.  Whenever I locked myself out of my car, which used to be a lot, just the sight of the locksmith truck made me tear up.  They help people big time.  But I have learned to separate good deeds from money.  There’s absolutely no correlation at all between the two, no matter how many times people that say nice people don’t care about money.  Nice people are nice because they don’t have to worry about their hot water being shut off or not being able to buy their organic vegetables at Whole Foods.  The Wall Street Journal reported today that inflation hit a 17-year high in July, and that it’s being fueled by the costs of energy, clothing, and food.  Getting ahead has been replaced by making par in this economy.  It’s OK to want to make money.  Ain’t nuttin’ wrong wit buying Hood milk!   

 

The Dow made a rainbow today, opening in the red, soaring into triple digit green, and then dipping to close up 83 points to $11,615.  The news about inflation seemed to tip the scale a bit, but it was still a decent day.  Bloomberg cited Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as leading today’s financials rally, but I think it was PMI.  Oil closed the day down 99 cents to $115.01, falling on news that demand is down.  I wonder what would have happened if yesterday’s news about the decline in oil inventory hit today and today’s lower demand story hit yesterday.  Or what if the two stories hit on the same day?  There isn’t as much money to be made in a flat market.  Oh these news people sure are savvy!

 

“Annals”.  I heard this word today for the first time since I was a kid.  I remember pouring over the annals at the Worcester public library to write book reports on Egyptians and early American settlers.  Annals.  What a funny word. 

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Tuesday August 12, 2008: Naked shorts back, Major bank downgrades!

Today was one of those days that made me wish I stayed in bed.  Both the Dow and oil were down, gold was down, energy was way up, and unfortunately, the financials were way down.  A lot of downgrades were handed out this week: Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Fannie Mae (FNM) were all downgraded, and may have led to today’s march into the vortex.  An email from a guy named Charles Payne popped into my inbox today, apparently from some stock market mailing list I inadvertently signed myself up for, that was titled “Tough Day to Decipher” and called today’s session “murky”.  Loch Ness murky.  Mid-Atlantic Ridge with no flashlight murky.

 

The downgrades of such big banks no doubt contributed to today’s dismalness; just the threat that Zion Bancorporation (ZION) may be downgraded sent the stock into a tailspin.  But it may all be a ploy by the big guys to keep the naked shorts away.  The ban on naked short selling was lifted today, and it’s hard to imagine there was no connection between its lift and the big downgrades.  Once a stock is downgraded, it falls sharply, then begins to make a steady increase.  No short money can be made on a stock going up. 

 

I bought more SSBX in the morning, and it held at about where I bought it all day.  I finally gave up on the dream that the fake OTC IndyMac (IDMC) was more than a fake OTC IndyMac and sold it at a pretty substantial loss.  Looking forward, I can use those funds better investing in UCHB, MF, and/or Community Bancorp (CBON), the last of which weathered today’s storm pretty well, closing up 5%.  A friend of mine says CBON is a good investment and points to the nice steady upward slope the stock has made since July 15.  He thinks “Something must be going on with it.”  I like his technical analysis.  CHC held up pretty well today too.       

 

The Dow closed down 139 to $11,642.  Oil sank $1.44 to close at $13.01.  Every stock in my portfolio, with the exception of CHC and TMA, closed in the red today, but several of the downers (and the Dow) had small rallies at the very end of the day.  Hopefully it’s an indication of better days ahead.

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Monday August 11, 2008: Oil ruled, RDN posts loss yet gained, will the dollar break free?

The Financial Times called this week “crucial” for determining if the six-year downward trend of the dollar will finally end.  One Euro now costs $1.4904, down almost 10 cents from about a month ago.  If it does break free, economists are expecting a quick economic rebound.  Fingers crossed.

 

Etrade pushed my funds through this morning so I was clear to buy.  I picked up more shares of MBI and CHC, and then bought into ACA Capital Holdings (ACAH) before reading the news that hit Friday about the company writing no new business.  So about 15 minutes later I sold ACAH at a loss.  I also sold off TGIC today at a loss and for the same reason.  No new business can never be a good thing, and I should have read up first before buying.  Haven’t I learned this lesson already?  Yes I have; the reason I sold TGIC the first time was due to a “no new business” declaration.  I should have read up on ACAH before jumping in.  I’ll never learn!

 

With the rest of my available funds, I was only able to buy 40 shares of Silver State Bancorp (SSBX), which I should have bought into first, and had written a note to myself to buy into first, but for whatever reason didn’t.  It has a relatively low trading volume, but the tiny fraction created by dividing its 52-week high into where it’s currently trading was just too good to pass up.  I’ll pick up more SSBX later in the week.

 

By 1PM I set up a plan for what to buy into next.  UCBH Holdings (UCBH), MF Global (MF), AMCORE Financial (AMFI), and Corus Bankshares (CORS) all create tiny fractions when dividing the current price by the 52-week high, and UCBH and MF both reported some sort of second quarter gains.  CORS and AMFI had unusual upward movement today, which could be a red flag, and also have much lower trading volumes than UCBH and MF.  Because of all this, I decided my next two moves would be into UCHB and MF, as soon as Etrade clears the funds created from selling off TGIC and ACAH.

 

I’d like to take a second to scream how dope Michael Phelps is.  MICHAEL PHELPS, YOU ROCK!!  He doesn’t represent every boy whose dad was an ass; he represents what every person can be.  Why Channel 7 shows soap operas over the Olympics I’ll never understand.  Ok, back to stocks.

 

Radian Group (RDN) reported a loss of $392.50 million ($4.91 per share) this morning as opposed to a profit of $21.1 million ($0.26 per share) this time last year, causing its share value to drop in the morning, but the news was quickly forgotten RDN closed up 8% on the day.  Reporting a profit these days is the anomaly, and even when a financial posts a profit, such as ABK last week, a stock can still fall.  There seems to be little rhyme or reason to financial stock prices in this environment, except that the announcement of “no new business” slaughters a stock price.  All other news is fair game.

 

The Dow was completely driven by oil today: when oil fell in the morning, the Dow made gains, and when oil had a change of heart around 2PM, so did the Dow.  http://www.advfn.com/p.php is a great site to watch the Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500, and their connection to crude oil prices.  The Dow closed the day up 48 points to $11,782.  Oil closed the day down 75 cents to

 

$114.45, the lowest it’s been since May 1, and fell below the benchmark $113 a barrel at one point during today’s trading session.

 

After the closing bell, Syncora Holdings (SCA) reported a second quarter loss of $492.9 million ($7.67 per share).  It should move up or down (who knows?) in the morning.  Naked short sellers return tomorrow, and I’m starting to have serious doubts about the fate of Freddie Mac (FRE).  By the end of the week if the news that big wig Legg Mason bought millions more shares doesn’t send FRE into the green, I may need to cut it loose.  Manny needs mental peace, I need mental peace.  Sinkers don’t bring the peace, just the pain!

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Wednesday August 6, 2008: Freddie tanks, Ambac soars, Oil goes Bear!

Freddie Mac reported its fourth straight loss, which is a loss three times as great as analysts predicted, and is planning to cut its shareholder dividend payout by at least 80%.  FRE opened down over 20%, made up some ground throughout the day, then took another nosedive after lunch to end the day down 19%.  On the other hand, Ambac Financial (ABK) reported second quarter net earnings of $823.1 million ($2.80 per share), $650 million more than this time last year.  ABK’s premarket hit a new 3-month high, and it closed the day up 23%. 

 

FRE was no doubt the market mover today, but by 12:30PM the shock on some of the other stocks seemed to have worn off and NCC, RDN, RF, SCA, and WM all joined ABK on team green.  I passed out on the couch for a couple hours and woke up to find the Dow, MBI, MTG, and PMI also on team green but C back in the red.   Trader. 

 

PMI reports earnings tomorrow, and so does Centerline Holding Company (CHC), a stock I have hesitated on getting into because of its low trading volume but nonetheless has been doing well.  It gained nearly 19% today to $1.76 per share with a 52-week high of $16. 

 

The Dow closed up 40 points to end this strange rollercoaster ride of a day at $11,656.  Oil officially slipped into bear country today closing down another 59 cents to $118.58, over 20% off its all-time high just one month ago.  The dollar hit a seven month peak!  I closed up $150.    

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Tuesday August 5, 2008: Naked shorts attack energy! Fed sticks, financials soar

Americans are completely brilliant.  We’ll be back on top soon, I’m sure of it.  For the last few days, maybe even longer, the energy sector has been taking a real beating, making it seem as if the naked shorts went to play over there.  We shoo the downpushers from financials to guard them while at the very same time announcing that we’re going to drill at home.  Let’s follow the money… Completely and totally brilliant.

 

Last Wednesday I sold my 200 shares of Triad Guaranty (TGIC) because it just wasn’t moving and thought I could use the funds better somewhere else. Then over the next two days, the stock jumped 150%: from 0.9 to 2.25.  Just my luck!  Well earnings came out after the bell last night and scared everyone away, shooting the stock down 30% this morning, allowing me to get back in at $1.72.  By 10AM, it hit green, opening a chance for all the people who woke up late to get out with their shirts still on, which they did, and by 10:30AM TGIC was solidly back in red.  I picked up more shares cheap when it bounced, then by 2PM it was trading lower than my cost average.  I really can’t win.  Whatever, I’ll wait!

 

People have been making a killing day trading the OTC IndyMac (IDMC).  Its fluctuation is outrageous: from 0.04 to 0.05 to 0.04 to 0.05 to 0.06+.  It’s a dream for people!  I’m too chicken to do anything with all that, as I’m sure my getting in would signal the party to end, but it’s nice to read peoples’ stories on the Google message board of how they’re making a boat load.  I’m still in at 0.14 and should really evaluate what I’m thinking will happen with it.  By 2:30PM, the ghost in the jukebox was up 50% on the day.   

 

Security Capital Assurance (SCA) is changing its name to Syncora, which froze its price at yesterday’s close and turned its ticker to a string of numbers in my watch list.  But that’s OK with me since its price slid today, making it the only one [besides TGIC] in my portfolio of 14 financials to snub its nose at this great up day.

 

At 2:15PM, news broke that the Fed would be keeping the interest rate at 2%, which wasn’t much of a surprise, but Radian Group (RDN), MGIC Investment (MTG), and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) especially liked this news showing big green candles at 2:15PM in their charts.

 

The Dow closed up 331 points to $11,615.  Oil closed down $1.66 to $119.75.  Get em, shorts!

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Monday August 4, 2008: Edouard misses, Fed meets tomorrow

It’s so nice waking up to a Monday with a big smile on my face.  The week holds so much potential. 

 

By 9:45AM, it already appeared to be a very down day.  A friend of mine said that it may be due to the headline “Tropical Storm [Edouard] Churns over Gulf toward Texas Oil Port” plastered all over Bloomberg.com and other such sites that investors keep a watchful eye on.  By 10AM the Bloomberg article was on update #2 about the storm.  I wonder if updates bump articles back up to the top of the list, kind of like on Google message boards.  Anyway, by noon the storm was deemed a miss, oil fell below $120/barrel, and the Dow looked like it may have had a change of heart.  Just the threat of us drilling offshore seemed to check the oversees price of oil, even before the storm’s miss.  The same thing happened in the 1970s. I just hope green energy got its claws in deep enough this time to take off. 

 

Bloomberg also threw another sucker punch this morning, reporting that although consumer spending is up due to Bush’s stimulus checks, the jump in consumer prices from May to June was larger than any monthly jump since 1981.  But then by 11:15AM, they issued a corrected report saying that it’s actually only been since 2005, not 1981.  How less dramatic!

 

Everyone is still a bit concerned that the Fed may raise interest rates tomorrow afternoon, so that may account for today’s uncertainty.  Increased interest rates would be great for savings accounts but not so much for people in mortgages.  My landlord just moved new people in upstairs, so after a year of wondering if I’d be bought out and have to go find another overpriced one-bedroom in Southie, his listing finally expired and I think I’m in the clear.  Renting is the best.

 

All the doom and gloom added up to a really great morning to buy, and I’m half-hoping tomorrow will be the same since the majority of my funds are still not settled.  I swear it’s been taking more than three days to settle those things.  If it wasn’t for the impending earnings reports, the down day would have been a great day to increase positions on the financials that I’m already in, but I decided to wait for the reports and get into one more bank instead.  Around 10:30AM I bought into MGIC Investment (MTG), which already reported its earnings last month.  That pretty much ended my buying for the day.

 

The new OTC IndyMac (IDMC) has been crashing since Thursday when news hit that the bank would soon be filing for bankruptcy protection.  I ignored the news and figured on averaging down on the shares I have, since I [thought I] wanted to pick up more anyway, but at this point I’m thinking the stock may go sub-penny.  It was a gamble; can’t win all bets.  I’m just amazed it hasn’t been a straight drop.  I mean, from around 11:15AM till 12:30PM, there was a pretty steady increase in stock price and most candles were green.  Who’s buying this thing?  Who knows.  But hey, maybe they know something I don’t.  I figure I’ll buy more if there’s some serious upward movement, but if not, I’ll just let it sizzle out and ask Etrade to remove its carcass from my portfolio. 

 

By 2:45PM I was finally in the green for the day after being down over $200 in the morning, and in the green overall with ABK, MBI, MTG, NCC, PMI, RDN, SCA, and WM.  But just 30 minutes later, things turned south again.  Maybe the uncertainty over tomorrow’s Fed meeting took over.  I’d love to have a giant map of the stock market and track one rich person’s investments for one day, if any of that was even possible.  How fast money moves will never cease to amaze me.

 

The Dow closed down 42 points to $11,284.  Oil closed down $3.69 to $121/barrel. 

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Friday August 1, 2008: Making money Trading bank Stocks

The unemployment report that came out today exposed that we are now at a 5.7% jobless rate, which is the highest the unemployment rate has been in four years.  General Motors (GM) reported a $15.5 billion loss, which is the third-largest reported loss in 100 years, and announced a plan to cut 5,000 white collar jobs by November 1.  American car sales are down over 13%.

 

The Dow closed down 51 points to end the week at $11,326, and oil jumped up $1 to close at $125.10.  The headlines are “Oil Closes Above $125”.  It’s funny how some numbers are psychological benchmarks when all integers have the same amount of space between them.

 

Despite the Dow’s fall and Oil’s gain, the financials still did well.  On a dip, I bought 50 more shares of ABK, and would have bought more if not for my little unsettled funds issue.  Now that I’m buying and holding, I sort of wish I could get off that 90-day list.  Oh well.  Other than that, I IMed my friends all day while watching $487 stream into my account.  I forget what my balance was at the beginning of the week, but my overall account balance is positive for the very first time since I started trading back in March, and that’s as good a reason as any to celebrate.  Maybe I’m finally getting it.  The end of the naked short selling ban is on the horizon and makes me a bit nervous, but I’ll figure that out when the time comes.  I’ll have to.  Some are saying the recent rally is artificial because of the stimulus checks, the housing bill, and the ban on the naked shorts, and they say that more down times are to come, but I guess in that case I’ll be able to increase my positions in the stocks I have and maybe pick up some of the ones I missed out on for cheap. 

 

Really, no one knows what’s going on.  The Google message boarders aren’t the most reliable and are often out for themselves, thinking that their post will lead the masses to do what they say, but reading through them solidifies the fact that no one knows what the heck is happening.  The only sure thing right now is that the market is moving on pure emotion.  Exxon stock fell because the largest profit in the history of the United States was “not as big as Wall Street expected”, and banks are soaring because their losses are “not as bad as predicted”.  ABK, MBI, PMI, and RDN all closed up 30%+ today, and no one knows if they’ll be liquefied over the weekend.  It’s absurd.  The next two weeks should bring as much, if not more, excitement as ABK, FRE, PMI, MBI, SCA, RDN, and TMA are all reporting earnings, and naked short sellers will be back out of their cages.  After August 12 the waters should be calm and whether or not buying into these financial companies was a good idea should become crystal clear. 

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