Posts tagged dow closed

Columbus Day 2008: Paulson’s $700 billion plan has changed- Drastically. Best day in stock History

Forget Prozac, the market needs lithium.  After last week’s worst week, today marked the best day in Wall Street’s history and the biggest one-day percentage gain since 1933.  Stocks rallied all across the board.  The Dow closed up 936 points, or over 11%, to $9,387, and the Nasdaq and S&P also gained over 11% each.  Morgan Stanley (MS) traded like an OTC today, gaining 86% from its close of $9.68 on Friday after Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group invested in it $9 billion.  Will it stick?  Maybe.  Countries all across the globe are now jointly focused on fixing their banks to stave off a worldwide recession, so if this doesn’t work, what will?

 

By the way, sometime over the weekend the plan changed from “buying toxic mortgage-backed assets” to “let’s follow Great Brittan because they seem to know how to deal with this crisis, so let’s pump money into a few good banks like they’re doing over there across the pond”.  So that’s what we’re doing.  And the figure is now $250 billion instead of $700 or $850 or whatever it ended up being once al the rum and wooden arrow makers across the nation were settled up.  

 

The credit markets were closed today because of the holiday, but they open back up tomorrow.  Analysts are now looking to see if the interbank lending rates, or the rates banks charge each other to borrow each other’s money (think what needed to happen but didn’t when people ran IndyMac) will come down so that banks will again lend to each other.  Until banks again start covering each other, no one who missed one electric bill will be able to get a loan.     

 

The only stocks I’m ahead in right now are Radian Group (RDN), MBIA (MBI), and Syncora (SCA); the rest are one big hemorrhage.  Moody’s still hasn’t lifted their threat of downgrade of Ambac (ABK).  But to stay positive after such a positive day, at least I’ll be able to average down.  And average down I definitely will!    

 

Word that a second stimulus package may be on its way may have also helped boost the markets today.  Crude oil followed the rest of the market today, closing up $4.14 to $81.84. 

 

The #1 movie in America is Beverly Hills Chihuahua.  

 

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Monday October 6, 2008: Dow closes under $10,000

Uh, this may be bad.  The only thing the bailout seems to have done was magnify the problem, and markets are crashing all around the globe.  Brazil’s market shut down twice today because of its percentage drops- 10% the first time and 15% the second. 

 

Citigroup and Wells Fargo declared a litigation truce until 12PM on October 8, however an appeals court overturned the block on the Wells-Wachovia deal. 

 

The Dow closed below $10,000 for the first time since 2004, and some are crying that an entire decade of gains- since the Dow first hit $10,000 on March 19, 1999- have been wiped out.  Back in 1999, and even in 2004, we weren’t tied so closely to the world’s markets, so some analysts are saying that there is more liquidity in the market this time around.  They may be right.  At one point today the Dow was down 800 points, but in the last hour made up over 400 points.  For a market to swing that much that fast, there has got to be a lot of liquidity, and it may mean that this time around the market will come back quicker.

 

Although I could be wrong.  Some people are calling $6K as the bottom.  Some are even saying $3K and $1,800.  $1,800?  Well, these are message boarders’ predictions, but the point is that no one knows.  It’s impossible to separate the market’s true worth and the emotional impact, and fear is now a thousand times stronger than any other force that normally drives trading.  We may see some stability when the bailout plan is actually drawn up and put into place.  Come on Paulson.  

 

Crude oil fell $6.07 to close the day at $87.81.  I wonder if my landlord factored in falling oil prices when he yelled at me today for asking when he’ll turn on the heat.  Thanks for the cold and the cold, Peter.  If I end up in the hospital with the pneumonia, don’t expect next month’s check.

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Monday September 29, 2008: BAILOUT REJECTED! TMA reverse-splits. Citibank (C) buys Wachovia (WB).

Holy Moly, who saw that one coming?!  The House of Representatives voted down the bailout 228 to 205, and it’s being blamed on a “too-partisan” speech made by the Democratic speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.  Whether her speech was partisan or not, someone’s head had to roll. 

 

Hindsight is 20/20, and looking back to last night, there was a clear signal the bill wasn’t going to pass: after an initial positive response, the Asian markets began to slide into red.  Real money movers always know things ahead of time, and the Asian markets’ slip was a sure signal that our bill was not going to pass. I should have seen it, and maybe subconsciously I did, but it seemed too unbelievable that the bailout would not pass given its enormity and all the long days and weekends Congress had put into it.  But as we’ve seen with IndyMac, Fannie and Freddie, and Washington Mutual, nothing is too big to fail. 

 

Lawmakers are headed back to the drawing board to draft up a new version of the plan, but won’t meet again until Wednesday because tomorrow is Rosh Hashanah.

 

I’m more of an observer now than an active player.  I’m in too deep to do anything except wait, so all I can really focus on is the day to day with the stocks I own and the stocks that those stocks are absorbing.  Citigroup (C) bought Wachovia (WB) today for $2.2 billion, or $1 per share. 

 

Two funny computer errors happened today: Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) put through a 10:1 reverse stock split this morning, but not before they multiplied the share price by 10.  So during today’s premarket, it looked like I had 3K extra in my account!  But the quirk was soon fixed and so was the overinflated share price.  By close, TMA was down to $1.15, which would have been 11.5 cents on Friday before the reverse split.  To buy back the preferred shares, Thornburg needs to raise more capital.  You’re welcome, TMA.   

 

Another blip came to Wachovia’s share price today.  At one point, it listed on Google finance at $500!  Message boarders were going nuts, and that error put the financial sector up 7% and made it look like the only sector in the green.  But that error was also soon fixed, and everyone who owns WB fell back into reality. 

 

One last computer oddity happened at the New York Stock Exchange today: because of a glitch, the morning bell never rang.  Mary Caraccioli said she’s never seen that happen.

 

People are still sweating a Moody’s downgrade to Ambac (ABK).  I really hope not.  Of all problems that could happen, that one tops my concern.  Just about a month ago, I was up over 100% on ABK and now I’m in the red.  If a Moody’s downgrade comes, it’ll destroy Ambac, especially after today.     

 

The Dow, which opened down over 100 points in seeming anticipation, dropped 777 points today- the greatest one-day decline in its history and even greater than the drop after September 11, 2001- to close the say at $10,365.  However to see the glass 1/10 full, this was the 17th worst daily drop percentage-wise, so not quite the worst.  Crude oil fell $10.52 to close at $96.36.   

 

The Sydney Morning Herald reported tonight that “online broking portal Etrade ground to a virtual halt this morning [Tuesday September 30] as it struggled to cope with massive trading volumes.”  Is this a hint of more blood to come?  Damn sure it is!

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Wednesday September 10, 2008: More pain at Lehman Brothers

OPEC is made up of 11 countries, and in September 2007, the group agreed to produce 28.8 million barrels a day.  Because global demand had been so high (except for in the last few months, of course), OPEC needed to bump that production up by 500,000 barrels a day.

 

Now that global demand is down, OPEC is “cutting” its production by those extra 500,000 barrels a day and re-adhering to the September 2007 quota.  But despite this, and the impending hit on Texas by Hurricane Ike, crude oil lost 68 cents a barrel to end the day at $102.58.

 

My strength has really been tested this week.  Often in the sectors, one bad stock in one sector can cause investors to run hard to other sectors.  This week that rotten apple has no doubt been Lehman Brothers whose premarket numbers were up over 20% before 8AM, but then fell like a rotten redwood once 8AM, along with the news that the bank lost $3.9 billion in Q3, hit.  Over the course of the day, LEH did make up ground and go green, and when it did, other financials followed.  But by 3:30PM the optimism was over and LEH took a turn to close down 7% for the day, again, taking other financials with it.  Later in the day, the company made a claim that it will spin its commercial real estate, worth $30 billion, into a new company and will sell another $40 billion worth of residential mortgages to the United Kingdom bank Blackrock.  Regardless of all these claims, the last thirty minutes of trading were gut wrenchingly painful as I watched the modest gains of some of my riskier stocks slip away. 

 

I have no stake in Lehman Brothers other than the residual effect its bad numbers have on my stocks’ numbers; I just watch the stock out of interest, much like some (not me) are compelled to slow down to rubberneck a car wreck on the other side of the highway.  However, I do own Washington Mutual (WM) who is having some serious problems of its own and whose share price fell to a 17-year low today.  I read somewhere today that “there is a 90% chance it will default within five years.”  By “default” do they mean “go bust”?  And if so, who can predict even the next day, let alone the market five years out?  I’m hoping that it was artificial panic, but WM fell by a very real 30% today.  Someone on the Google message boards claimed to have purposefully driven by a local branch to make sure a run wasn’t happening.  It wasn’t.  People were still going in at a leisurely pace to make deposits.  That made me feel [only very, very slightly] better since there are no WaMus around here for me to drive by, and I had been wondering.  A friend of mine says that Washington Mutual’s new CEO Alan Fishman is “a genius and had a stellar record with Sovereign Bank”.  He doesn’t see WM failing.  I’m going to take his word for it because my friend is smart himself and what other option do I have?  Sell at a loss?  Cry in my hands?  I don’t think so!  Go big or go bust!  Oh please go big, not bust!

 

This week has been painful, but out of optimism, I have to say today was less painful than yesterday, and hopefully tomorrow will be positive, or at least even less painful than today.  And amidst it all, Radian Group (RDN) and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) made double digit percentage gains today, so there is still some light in the sector.  The bailout of Freddie and Fannie was a game changer, and arguably a very unfair one, but soon again it will be about balance sheets and not terror. 

 

The Dow moved sideways today and closed up 38 points to $11,268. 

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Monday September 8, 2008: 11th Bank Failure (thanks McCain), and a day of profit-grabbing??

“Never count your chickens before they’ve hatched” goes the saying, but I didn’t follow this advice.  This morning during the premarket, I busted out my calculator to crunch just how much I was set to make based on the premarket numbers, and it was a lot.  So you can imagine my surprise when I signed back into Etrade at 11AM to see most of my stocks in the red and Freddie trading at $1 (which actually was better than I expected).  Indeed, the financials all opened up big- real big- and I’m sure today’s blip will be seen for years to come.  But then things happened.  I’m still not sure exactly what, but maybe it was a composite of a bunch of things:

 

Washington Mutual (WM) gave their CEO Kerry Killinger the boot, instated veteran Alan Fishman, and was told by the Office of Thrift Supervision to provide “an updated, multi-year business plan and forecast for its earnings, asset quality, capital and business segment performance” (SmartMoney.com).  Sure sounds like micromanagement to me.  WM closed the day down 5.62% after being down 20% during some of the session. 

 

Syncora’s (SCA) rating was withdrawn by Fitch Ratings, who had just in August changed SCA’s rating from “evolving” to “positive”.  Who are these Fitch Ratings people anyway, and why does their word mean so much?  SCA closed the day down 4% after being down by double digit percentages various times during today’s session. 

 

Radian Group (RDN) opened the day at $5.50, which was up from Friday’s close of $4.79, steadily fell throughout the day like its siblings, then fell off in the last few minutes of trading to close the day down 17%.   Google message boarders think someone knows something, although no news has yet hit. 

 

Silver State Bancorp (SSBX), driven into the ground by John McCain’s son Andrew McCain, failed on Friday, making US bank casualty number eleven.  I held just 125 shares of them, worth just over $100, so the hit wasn’t so hard.  But that with Freddie had me reeling.  I contemplated selling WM and SCA, or buying more WM, or buying Deerfield Capital (DFR), or not buying them, or waiting it out, or putting a 60-day limit order in, but in the end I did nothing.  I sold SSBX at market for a gain less than the commission and held on to FRE.  I decided that once the smoke clears, which stock is which and where each is going will become much clearer.  But I sure do wish those pre- and early-market numbers held!  And most of all, I hope today isn’t a sign that the US banking industry is going the way of Wal-Mart (who coincidentally closed the day up 2%), and headed to put all the little guys out of business.  One analyst, Steve Stelmach of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. said that “mortgage insurance could become an obsolete form of credit enhancement” in the long-term because of the bailout.  He was loosely referring to the drop in RDN’s share price and how the company, and ones like it, could be phased out.      

 

The Dow ironically traced a smiley face, opening way up, dipping a bit, then closing the day up 289 to $11,510.  Because of Hurricane Ike barreling towards the Gulf of Mexico, oil closed the day up as well, but just by 11 cents to $106.34.  The dollar is at its highest value in nearly a year!  It would now take just $1.41 to get one euro.  Including the hit from SSBX, I closed the day down $323, $211 of which was from FRE. 

 

You win some, you lose some; I just wish I had won today.  The market rallied and I was left in its dust.  With any luck, much of today’s activity in the financial sector was just profit-taking and the days to come will reveal the real reaction to this past weekend’s news.  Next time I won’t count my chickens before they’ve hatched and started laying eggs of their own!

 

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Tuesday August 26, 2008: Hurricane Gustav, Interest rates will increase

Happy Birthday, Mom! 

 

Back to work in the UK.  Yesterday was a bank holiday over there for some reason. 

 

The dollar has gained and lost value against other world currencies since trends like these began being recorded in the 1970s, and usually, as the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, the tide takes about a half decade to come in and another half decade to go back out again.  The most recent downtrend triggered in 2002 is now six years strong, and with the bounce the dollar has seen in the past few weeks, some analysts are predicting that the dollar is in fact beginning an uptrend.  It may all be due less to a better domestic economy and more to a weakening economy oversees, but oil’s recent falls are real, and in the last month and a half the dollar has gained a significant 8% on the euro and 5% on the Japanese yen.  The dollar closed the day up 0.68% against the euro today, decreasing the cost of one to $1.4648.  News is that the Fed’s next interest rate adjustment will be an increase, but no timetable has yet been set.  Consumer confidence in July was said to be up more than expected. 

 

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) closed yesterday at $0.40, then jumped over 50% in afterhours last night.  A friend of mine says he saw 80 cents in premarket trading this morning, but I was sleeping when it happened.  The stock opened today up 25%, climbed to 50% above opening, then slowly slid to close up 22%.  Google message boarders are predicting TMA to reach anywhere between $1.20 to $5 by week’s end.  I’m not holding my breath on $5 by Friday, but it’s starting to look like $1 may be possible.  A year ago, TMA was trading at $14/share, which was down from $27 just one month before.  One thousand shares of this stock could really pay off if TMA reaches even a quarter of its 52-week high.

 

Freddie had another up day: 20%.  The morning made it look like a great day was about to unfold for just about all the financials, but by the afternoon things had changed.  Other than TMA and FRE, most were down except for a few that just squeaked into the green.  One financial, Michigan Heritage Bancorp (MHBC) did something I’ve only ever seen OTCs do: it closed up 100%.  But the trading volume on MHBC is so low I’m not touching it. 

 

The Dow had a sideways day that ended up 26 points to $11,412, and on anticipation of Hurricane Gustav disrupting production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico region, oil climbed $1.16 to $116.27 a barrel.  However, that was down from an earlier increase of over $2, so it may be that Gustav is changing course.

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Thursday August 14, 2008: PMI gets bought out and leads a financials rally

At the bewilderment of the New Yorker who took my call, I cancelled my free trial membership to the Financial Times today.  “Your free month isn’t over yet, are you sure you want to cancel?” she asked.  “Yes,” I answered, “I never get a chance to read it.”  The honest answer would have been that there aren’t enough pictures and the print is too small, but I didn’t want to get into all that.   I picked up the October issue of Writer’s Digest because it boasted a 28-person long list of agents who are actively seeking new work.  I emailed three of them last night.  Two of them already rejected me.  Fuck them. 

 

Better times did indeed come today.  QBE Insurance Group announced this morning that they plan to buy PMI Group’s (PMI) Asian and Australian businesses for $896 million, which caused my 250 shares of PMI to skyrocket in price from $2.79 to $4.00 in premarket trading, climb to 70% above open, and fall to close the day up 49% to at $4.17.  All at once, all the losses I incurred this week disappeared.  Nice. 

 

I had a change of heart about UCBH last night.  Its 52-week high is just $20, which doesn’t seem worth the $4 a share now.  The financials are so beaten down, there are much better bargains to be found.  Picking up more shares of Ambac Financial (ABK) for the same price, and which has a 52-week high of $74, may be a better bet, but its share price was up too high to buy in today.  PMI, SCA, RDN, and MBI all had double digit percentage gains, and just about all the financials closed in the green today.  Tomorrow, when everyone is done grabbing profits, will be a better time to buy.  I had a dream last night that I signed into my brokerage account, which wasn’t Etrade but another strange trading platform, saw that I had made $50,000 (I wish), and somehow lost the internet connection and web address to get back in and sell.  By the time I did get back in, after a tryst with my dead friend and being robbed by one of my student’s parents, all the profits were gone.  I woke up pretty distressed, so the surprise about PMI came on a good morning. 

 

I also hit a personal goal today: my portfolio took in $1000 in a day.  Making $1000 everyday would be pretty sweet, and I really never thought it would actually happen.  But it did.  Maybe my experiment is really working.  One of my friends said that he feels bad for the people losing money, but I don’t.  They don’t cry on my bad days.  I’m all about helping people, and in fact can’t imagine what I’d do if I wasn’t a teacher.  Well I’d be a locksmith, but they help people too.  Whenever I locked myself out of my car, which used to be a lot, just the sight of the locksmith truck made me tear up.  They help people big time.  But I have learned to separate good deeds from money.  There’s absolutely no correlation at all between the two, no matter how many times people that say nice people don’t care about money.  Nice people are nice because they don’t have to worry about their hot water being shut off or not being able to buy their organic vegetables at Whole Foods.  The Wall Street Journal reported today that inflation hit a 17-year high in July, and that it’s being fueled by the costs of energy, clothing, and food.  Getting ahead has been replaced by making par in this economy.  It’s OK to want to make money.  Ain’t nuttin’ wrong wit buying Hood milk!   

 

The Dow made a rainbow today, opening in the red, soaring into triple digit green, and then dipping to close up 83 points to $11,615.  The news about inflation seemed to tip the scale a bit, but it was still a decent day.  Bloomberg cited Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as leading today’s financials rally, but I think it was PMI.  Oil closed the day down 99 cents to $115.01, falling on news that demand is down.  I wonder what would have happened if yesterday’s news about the decline in oil inventory hit today and today’s lower demand story hit yesterday.  Or what if the two stories hit on the same day?  There isn’t as much money to be made in a flat market.  Oh these news people sure are savvy!

 

“Annals”.  I heard this word today for the first time since I was a kid.  I remember pouring over the annals at the Worcester public library to write book reports on Egyptians and early American settlers.  Annals.  What a funny word. 

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Tuesday August 12, 2008: Naked shorts back, Major bank downgrades!

Today was one of those days that made me wish I stayed in bed.  Both the Dow and oil were down, gold was down, energy was way up, and unfortunately, the financials were way down.  A lot of downgrades were handed out this week: Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Fannie Mae (FNM) were all downgraded, and may have led to today’s march into the vortex.  An email from a guy named Charles Payne popped into my inbox today, apparently from some stock market mailing list I inadvertently signed myself up for, that was titled “Tough Day to Decipher” and called today’s session “murky”.  Loch Ness murky.  Mid-Atlantic Ridge with no flashlight murky.

 

The downgrades of such big banks no doubt contributed to today’s dismalness; just the threat that Zion Bancorporation (ZION) may be downgraded sent the stock into a tailspin.  But it may all be a ploy by the big guys to keep the naked shorts away.  The ban on naked short selling was lifted today, and it’s hard to imagine there was no connection between its lift and the big downgrades.  Once a stock is downgraded, it falls sharply, then begins to make a steady increase.  No short money can be made on a stock going up. 

 

I bought more SSBX in the morning, and it held at about where I bought it all day.  I finally gave up on the dream that the fake OTC IndyMac (IDMC) was more than a fake OTC IndyMac and sold it at a pretty substantial loss.  Looking forward, I can use those funds better investing in UCHB, MF, and/or Community Bancorp (CBON), the last of which weathered today’s storm pretty well, closing up 5%.  A friend of mine says CBON is a good investment and points to the nice steady upward slope the stock has made since July 15.  He thinks “Something must be going on with it.”  I like his technical analysis.  CHC held up pretty well today too.       

 

The Dow closed down 139 to $11,642.  Oil sank $1.44 to close at $13.01.  Every stock in my portfolio, with the exception of CHC and TMA, closed in the red today, but several of the downers (and the Dow) had small rallies at the very end of the day.  Hopefully it’s an indication of better days ahead.

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Monday August 11, 2008: Oil ruled, RDN posts loss yet gained, will the dollar break free?

The Financial Times called this week “crucial” for determining if the six-year downward trend of the dollar will finally end.  One Euro now costs $1.4904, down almost 10 cents from about a month ago.  If it does break free, economists are expecting a quick economic rebound.  Fingers crossed.

 

Etrade pushed my funds through this morning so I was clear to buy.  I picked up more shares of MBI and CHC, and then bought into ACA Capital Holdings (ACAH) before reading the news that hit Friday about the company writing no new business.  So about 15 minutes later I sold ACAH at a loss.  I also sold off TGIC today at a loss and for the same reason.  No new business can never be a good thing, and I should have read up first before buying.  Haven’t I learned this lesson already?  Yes I have; the reason I sold TGIC the first time was due to a “no new business” declaration.  I should have read up on ACAH before jumping in.  I’ll never learn!

 

With the rest of my available funds, I was only able to buy 40 shares of Silver State Bancorp (SSBX), which I should have bought into first, and had written a note to myself to buy into first, but for whatever reason didn’t.  It has a relatively low trading volume, but the tiny fraction created by dividing its 52-week high into where it’s currently trading was just too good to pass up.  I’ll pick up more SSBX later in the week.

 

By 1PM I set up a plan for what to buy into next.  UCBH Holdings (UCBH), MF Global (MF), AMCORE Financial (AMFI), and Corus Bankshares (CORS) all create tiny fractions when dividing the current price by the 52-week high, and UCBH and MF both reported some sort of second quarter gains.  CORS and AMFI had unusual upward movement today, which could be a red flag, and also have much lower trading volumes than UCBH and MF.  Because of all this, I decided my next two moves would be into UCHB and MF, as soon as Etrade clears the funds created from selling off TGIC and ACAH.

 

I’d like to take a second to scream how dope Michael Phelps is.  MICHAEL PHELPS, YOU ROCK!!  He doesn’t represent every boy whose dad was an ass; he represents what every person can be.  Why Channel 7 shows soap operas over the Olympics I’ll never understand.  Ok, back to stocks.

 

Radian Group (RDN) reported a loss of $392.50 million ($4.91 per share) this morning as opposed to a profit of $21.1 million ($0.26 per share) this time last year, causing its share value to drop in the morning, but the news was quickly forgotten RDN closed up 8% on the day.  Reporting a profit these days is the anomaly, and even when a financial posts a profit, such as ABK last week, a stock can still fall.  There seems to be little rhyme or reason to financial stock prices in this environment, except that the announcement of “no new business” slaughters a stock price.  All other news is fair game.

 

The Dow was completely driven by oil today: when oil fell in the morning, the Dow made gains, and when oil had a change of heart around 2PM, so did the Dow.  http://www.advfn.com/p.php is a great site to watch the Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500, and their connection to crude oil prices.  The Dow closed the day up 48 points to $11,782.  Oil closed the day down 75 cents to

 

$114.45, the lowest it’s been since May 1, and fell below the benchmark $113 a barrel at one point during today’s trading session.

 

After the closing bell, Syncora Holdings (SCA) reported a second quarter loss of $492.9 million ($7.67 per share).  It should move up or down (who knows?) in the morning.  Naked short sellers return tomorrow, and I’m starting to have serious doubts about the fate of Freddie Mac (FRE).  By the end of the week if the news that big wig Legg Mason bought millions more shares doesn’t send FRE into the green, I may need to cut it loose.  Manny needs mental peace, I need mental peace.  Sinkers don’t bring the peace, just the pain!

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