Posts tagged CHC

Monday October 27, 2008: New-home sales are up and prices are down. Iran needs more expensive oil.

October 26, 2008 · Filed under business, economy, investing, money, politics, stock market · Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Nikkei 225 hit a 26-year low today- last night for us.  Gasoline prices in the US fell the fastest in the past two weeks that they have ever fallen, and now the national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline is just about where it was a year ago. 

 

The SEC is still deciding whether it will suspend the mark-to-market rules, letting banks value their bad assets at whatever they want.  Critics say that this will further warp perspective, but people in favor of getting rid of the rule say it will help banks’ balance sheets.  This coming Wednesday, the SEC is set to hold a discussion on the implications of mark-to-market accounting and its possible recent effect on the market.

 

New home sales data came out today and was better than expected.  Although 33% lower than they were a year ago, sales of new homes increased 2.7% from August to September.  So there is some sign of movement. 

 

The Dow crept up today until 2PM when someone yelled, “sike!” and everything came crashing down to close 203 points below open to $8,175.  Just 175 more points until we’re in the seven thousands and half of where we were just about exactly a year ago.  Crude took a big dip in early morning trading, but then rallied a little after the new home sale data to close down just 93 cents to $63.22 per barrel. 

 

My stocks are all in the can.  Citigroup (C) is trading under $12 a share, and two- Syncora (SCA) and Centerline Holdings (CHC) are under $1.  If only they stay on the New York Stock Exchange, I’ll be happy. 

 

A couple interesting things were said on Money Matters Today tonight: Iran needs its oil, which it’s only real export, to be sold at $95 a barrel in order to fund its social programs.  I’m no expert on Iranian social programs, but oil trading in the $60 range has got to be hitting Iran hard if they need it trading 60% higher.

 

Another interesting thing said on the show tonight was that for every penny drop in the price of a gallon of gasoline, Americans add over $1 billion to their pockets annually.  

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Monday September 15, 2008: Down go the Banks

September 15, 2008 · Filed under business, economy, investing, money, politics, stock market · Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Exactly two months from the widely-believed bottom, “the biggest shakeup since the Great Depression” is what it’s being called.  Today was the largest 1-day loss to the Dow in seven years.  What a total mess.  All this time, I’ve been sure no one knew what they were talking about the financials and that the bottom was already hit.  Slowly though, I’m coming to ask myself, “what were you thinking??”  Analysts had said the worst wasn’t over, but of course I didn’t believe them; I’m stubborn and always have been.  Late last night and early this morning, former employees streamed out of Boston’s Lehman building, and all other Lehman locations, with boxes and resumes in hand.  After last night’s negotiations failed, it was certain death for their jobs, and their stock, which was at 70 cents by 6:30AM, 45 cents by 7:30AM, and 18 cents at day’s close.  In less than 24 hours, the 158 year old mainstay lost 94% of its value.  Not only was the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers the largest bankruptcy in United States history, it dwarfed all other bankruptcies in our country’s history.  Along for the hellevator ride from par to the bottomless abyss went all the financials today.  Even Merrill Lynch, which was up 30% in premarket trading because of being bought out last night for nearly twice its current value, closed the day up just 0.6% from its sorry close on Friday. 

 

Articles and blog titles that ht today had some pretty colorful titles: “Jaw-dropping day for financial markets”, “A day of reckoning”, “Meltdown in US finance system pummels stock market”, “AIG fights for survival”, “Street’s nasty surprises keep experts guessing”, “Giants fall on judgment day”, “Stocks plummet on financial meltdown”, “It’s a morose Monday for Street’s employees”, “Goodbye to easy money”, and “Broken brothers” were just a sampling.  The articles spanned all languages as today hit the entire world like a million tons of bricks. 

 

So many questions arose out of today.  What will happen to WaMu?  What will happen to the mortgage insurers now that one of the banks they insured has evaporated?  What will happen to AIG’s stock value now that the bank plans to head to the lending window?  AIG had asked for $40 billion, but word on the street is that they’ll “only” get $20 billion.  Following suit of its sibling ratings companies, Standard & Poor cut Washington Mutual’s rating to “junk” today.

 

Of the stocks I watch, here are today’s nearly unbelievable numbers:

 

Regions Financial (RF):                           Down 4% to $11.12

Community Bancorp (CBON):                    Down 4% to $4.53

Syncora Holdings (SCA):                          Down 6% to $2.39

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA):                       Down 7% to 35 cents

Triad Guarantee (TGIC):                         Down 9% to $2.1549

Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF):            Down 9% to $19.15

MBIA (MBI):                                               Down 11% to $11.45

National City (NCC):                                    Down 11% to $4.28

First Marblehead (FMD):                        Down 14% to $2.67

Centerline Holding (CHC):                          Down 14% to $2.05

Radian Group (RDN):                               Down 14% to $3.90

Citigroup (C):                                                Down 15% to $15.24

Ambac (ABK):                                             Down 16% to $6.24

PMI Group (PMI):                                        Down 17% to $2.57

Deerfield Capital (DFR):                          Down 18% to 60 cents

Bank of America (BAC):                              Down 21% to $26.55

MGIC Investment (MTG):                       Down 21% to $5.35

Washington Mutual (WM):                          Down 26% to $2.00

American International Group (AIG):  Down 60% to $4.76

 

 

My friend works for AIG.  I hope that if he loses his job it’ll be the kick in the pants he needs to get his ass to Hollywood.

 

The Dow plunged 504 points today to close below $11,000 to $10,917.  A few days ago, an analyst on TV said that “it is possible we may see $100 oil within six months”.  Within six months, buddy, how about within six days?  Crude oil fell to a 7-month low today, losing $5.47 to close at $95.71 a barrel. 

 

This experiment is going to be much longer-term than I previously thought.  Luckily I have time to wait.  I took another advance on my credit card to possibly take advantage of some of the week’s bargains, and will pay it back on Friday when my paycheck hits.

 

Later in the day, an article titled “Wall Street Losses Seen Spurring Regulatory Reform” hit CNNMoney.com.  Some are calling for another ban on short-sellers.  Alan Greenspan, in his interview this weekend, said that short-sellers are necessary to keep prices as a closer reflection of company values.  But if Washington Mutual, for example is really trading at [now less than] 17% of its book value (MarketWatch, September 11), how real are the shorties really keeping things?

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Monday August 11, 2008: Oil ruled, RDN posts loss yet gained, will the dollar break free?

August 11, 2008 · Filed under money, stock market · Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Financial Times called this week “crucial” for determining if the six-year downward trend of the dollar will finally end.  One Euro now costs $1.4904, down almost 10 cents from about a month ago.  If it does break free, economists are expecting a quick economic rebound.  Fingers crossed.

 

Etrade pushed my funds through this morning so I was clear to buy.  I picked up more shares of MBI and CHC, and then bought into ACA Capital Holdings (ACAH) before reading the news that hit Friday about the company writing no new business.  So about 15 minutes later I sold ACAH at a loss.  I also sold off TGIC today at a loss and for the same reason.  No new business can never be a good thing, and I should have read up first before buying.  Haven’t I learned this lesson already?  Yes I have; the reason I sold TGIC the first time was due to a “no new business” declaration.  I should have read up on ACAH before jumping in.  I’ll never learn!

 

With the rest of my available funds, I was only able to buy 40 shares of Silver State Bancorp (SSBX), which I should have bought into first, and had written a note to myself to buy into first, but for whatever reason didn’t.  It has a relatively low trading volume, but the tiny fraction created by dividing its 52-week high into where it’s currently trading was just too good to pass up.  I’ll pick up more SSBX later in the week.

 

By 1PM I set up a plan for what to buy into next.  UCBH Holdings (UCBH), MF Global (MF), AMCORE Financial (AMFI), and Corus Bankshares (CORS) all create tiny fractions when dividing the current price by the 52-week high, and UCBH and MF both reported some sort of second quarter gains.  CORS and AMFI had unusual upward movement today, which could be a red flag, and also have much lower trading volumes than UCBH and MF.  Because of all this, I decided my next two moves would be into UCHB and MF, as soon as Etrade clears the funds created from selling off TGIC and ACAH.

 

I’d like to take a second to scream how dope Michael Phelps is.  MICHAEL PHELPS, YOU ROCK!!  He doesn’t represent every boy whose dad was an ass; he represents what every person can be.  Why Channel 7 shows soap operas over the Olympics I’ll never understand.  Ok, back to stocks.

 

Radian Group (RDN) reported a loss of $392.50 million ($4.91 per share) this morning as opposed to a profit of $21.1 million ($0.26 per share) this time last year, causing its share value to drop in the morning, but the news was quickly forgotten RDN closed up 8% on the day.  Reporting a profit these days is the anomaly, and even when a financial posts a profit, such as ABK last week, a stock can still fall.  There seems to be little rhyme or reason to financial stock prices in this environment, except that the announcement of “no new business” slaughters a stock price.  All other news is fair game.

 

The Dow was completely driven by oil today: when oil fell in the morning, the Dow made gains, and when oil had a change of heart around 2PM, so did the Dow.  http://www.advfn.com/p.php is a great site to watch the Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500, and their connection to crude oil prices.  The Dow closed the day up 48 points to $11,782.  Oil closed the day down 75 cents to

 

$114.45, the lowest it’s been since May 1, and fell below the benchmark $113 a barrel at one point during today’s trading session.

 

After the closing bell, Syncora Holdings (SCA) reported a second quarter loss of $492.9 million ($7.67 per share).  It should move up or down (who knows?) in the morning.  Naked short sellers return tomorrow, and I’m starting to have serious doubts about the fate of Freddie Mac (FRE).  By the end of the week if the news that big wig Legg Mason bought millions more shares doesn’t send FRE into the green, I may need to cut it loose.  Manny needs mental peace, I need mental peace.  Sinkers don’t bring the peace, just the pain!

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Friday August 8, 2008: Oil bubble bursts, Dollar’s biggest gain

August 8, 2008 · Filed under money, stock market · Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Etrade sucks.  When I transferred finds in this morning, a little window popped up saying the funds would be ready for immediate investment.  When they didn’t show in my account, I called and the rep told me I’d have to wait until the 14th.  By 3:30PM I wasn’t happy with that answer, so I called back and the new rep told me they’d fix the problem within 30 minutes.  But they didn’t.  Total bullshit.  You really do get what you pay for, but in Etrade’s case, I think $10 a trade and free customer service is way overpriced. 

 

Telegram U.K. declared a burst of the oil bubble.  Well no shit.  All the Escalade drivers who have been [falsely] cursing China’s oil demand for driving up the cost of their premium unleaded must be thanking God for answering their prayers.  Ah, I’m just bitter today for being cheated by Etrade.  As a result of the burst in oil, transportation was the big winner today.

 

But all I could do today was watch.  Mbia (MBI) reported a surprise profit of $1.7 billion before the bell this morning, so its stock jumped big in early morning trading.  Between last night and this morning, I whittled today’s buy plan down to three stocks: 50 more shares of MBI before it hit the stratosphere, 100 more of CHC, and 50 more of ABK, but it was a no go on any of it.  Damn you Etrade!  Liars!

 

JP Morgan analysts, as if they’re any sort of authority these days, downgraded Ambac (ABK), so its stock fell even after the great profit it reported on Wednesday.  People on the Google message boards think it was a classic case of stock manipulation, and I may agree.  ABK ended the day down 8%, MBI ended the day up 3%, and CHC ended the day up 48%. 

 

Fannie Mae (FNM) reported a huge second quarter loss of $2.3 billion ($2.54 per share) and a slash of its dividend before the bell this morning, so it was no surprise its stock fell.  But it was a bit surprising that Freddie Mac (FRE) saw green today.  I know I still have a lot to learn about the stock market, but it struck me as odd that Fannie didn’t pull everything else into its vortex like Freddie seemed to do yesterday.  

 

All in all, I gained today, but not enough to erase yesterday’s huge loss.  The Dow closed up 303 points to $11,734, and oil closed down $4.82 to $115.20 per barrel.  The dollar made its greatest one-day gain in over five years, and gold hit a 3-month low.  The Beijing opening ceremonies are tonight, so the world’s eye will be in China. 

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Thursday August 7, 2008: Dow freefalls with AIG, Oil up

August 7, 2008 · Filed under money, stock market · Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Crash!  Bam!  Boom!  Down goes the Dow (and everything else except oil)!  Today reminded me of a typical day we would have seen a couple months ago, and would have been a great day to increase positions, but I’m all out of funds- both unsettled and settled.  Tomorrow’s pay day, and it may take a day for the funds to come into Etrade from Citizens.  Fingers crossed it doesn’t!  Tomorrow should be another great buy day.  There were tornado warnings for New England all over the news today, which was a nice distraction for people (like me) flabbergasted by Wall Street!

 

This morning I bought into CHC and increased my position in PMI later on.  Before the bell, CHC came out with positive earnings and PMI not so much, but in the long run I still think PMI is a decent investment.  At one point today, CHC hit 50%+above opening, then settled back to 25% up.  PMI fell more than 20%. 

 

Mbia (MBI) comes out with earnings before the opening bell tomorrow, and RDN reports after the bell on Monday.  SCA reports before the bell Tuesday.  The Yahoo finance earnings calendar is a great resource to find earnings dates. 

 

I have a lot of analyzing to do tonight to figure out the best next moves.  I’ll wait until earnings next week to get more RDN and SCA, but as for picking up more shares of stocks that have already reported on their second quarter, I’m going to have to give it some serious thought.  ABK, C, CHC, MBI, NCC, RF, and TMA are all possibilities, although there was a story about Citigroup (C) having to buy back some junk they sold to people, so maybe staying away from C right now is a good idea.  Other tickers that may be good next moved are: KFS, CORS, MF, AMFI, CBON, SSBX, but I wouldn’t yet recognize these banks’ names, let alone their stories.  I’ll have to look into them all tonight.  One of my stock friends said his next move will be CBON, so that may be the best move of the lot. 

 

The Dow freefell 224 points today to $11,431, which may have been due to the bear market benchmark oil passed yesterday.  People like to buy when things go bear, and oil did in fact close up $1.44 to just above $120 a barrel today.  Bloomberg reported that today’s stock pullback was

 

led by American International Group’s (AIG) reported losses.  A friend of mine has a big stake in AIG; I feel bad for him.  I closed down enough today to just about wipe out this week’s profits, but I’m not sweating yet: this was bound to happen.  Tomorrow will be interesting and a great day to buy.     

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